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Warc: global adspend growth forecast to slow

GLOBAL – The latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc, the marketing intelligence service, indicates that growth in global advertising expenditure will slow to 5.1 percent this year, following an estimated rise of 5.3 percent in 2014. A further rise in adspend, of 6.0 percent, is expected in 2016.
Warc’s Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.
Of the 13 markets covered in the report, 12 are forecast net growth in adspend in 2015. However, this rate of growth has been revised downwards for nine countries since our previous forecast in July 2014. It should be noted that total forecast global adspend for the year has been raised 0.1pp since the last report.
All media, barring newspapers and magazines, are predicted to record year-on-year growth in 2015, with internet seeing the greatest increase, up 16.0 percent. TV has seen the largest downgrade – by 2.7pp – with growth this year now expected to come in behind Cinema (4.0 percent) and Out of home (3.9 percent).
James McDonald, Research Analyst at Warc said: “The global economic outlook is more uncertain than six months ago, with Eurozone stagnation, Russian sanctions and a slowdown in Asia all threatening growth. It is therefore unsurprising that many market-watchers, including us, have revised down expectations.
“Despite the uncertainty, we should still see growth in global advertising expenditure of between 5-6 percent this year and next.” 

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