According to US industry paper ADWEEK, an analyst for the firm JP Morgan predicts that global ad spending will drop nearly 6% this year, fueled by an anticipated 9% decline in the U.S and similar steep drops in Europe. China and India will be bright spots (still growing, though slower), and a “tempered recovery” might be expected in late 2009 or early 2010.
But the good old days aren’t coming back. As ADWEEK puts it, “Long term, how-ever, the firm does not expect the ad market to once again regain its historical premium growth rate to the overall economy, and at best foresee advertising growth matching nominal [Gross Domestic Product] growth several years into the expansion cycle.” In simpler terms, the "depth and length of this downturn will have had a negative impact on (ad buy) pricing, which will take time to recover."
Quadrani’s forecast comes as media agencies such as Publicis Groupe’s Zenith Optimedia, Interpublic Group’s Magna and WPP Group’s GroupM lower their adspend estimates this year, amid a drumbeat of bad news.
